Chicago Bears players in the 2012/2013 Pro Bowl:

WR Brandon Marshall: First Bears receiver honored since Marty Booker in 2002; only second since 1971.

DT Henry Melton: Vindication that Melton indeed has entered elite status. Sure to help his push for a major contract upgrade as he becomes a free agent following this season.

DE Julius Peppers: Peppers’ second time honored as a Bear.

CB Charles Tillman: Tillman rewarded for the second straight year.

CB Tim Jennings: Honored for leading NFL in interceptions, starting with his teammate Tillman. I cannot remember another time when two Bears cornerbacks made the team. Surely never both as starters, which both are.

A notable player missing is LB Lance Briggs, who doesn’t make the Pro Bowl team for the first time since 2004, I believe. Will be interesting to hear the speculation on why Briggs was snubbed. Wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that Briggs would not participate in the game year after year?

Watching the Sunday Night Football game last night, when the Seahawks continued their run of fire since beating the Bears, I wondered why I felt like the Bears had lost. Thankfully they didn’t, but I just couldn’t shake that unhappy feeling.

Must have been because after starting 7-1, the Bears find themselves needing to win at Detroit and help from Green Bay, of all teams, to make the playoffs as a wildcard.

All I will say today is that I still have an opinion about how this is probably going to shake out. I said a few weeks back that I foresaw a scenario of the Bears having to win in Detroit in order to make the postseason. And I still feel the way I did about what’s going to happen. Certainly also the Bears could beat Detroit, then watch Minnesota beat Green Bay in the dome. Talk about something that could make me hate the Packers even more than I already do.

But I won’t go into that today, it’s Christmas Eve after all. Happy Holidays to everyone.

To quote an old phrase I heard somewhere, sometime in the past, the Bears’ offense certainly has not been what we thought it would be in 2012, has it?

So as the Bears ready themselves to play at Arizona for the first time since the 2006 “miracle in the desert,” common wisdom is that the Bears should easily handle the 5-9 Cardinals.

But after reading this article by Adam Jahns in the Sun-Times yesterday, I’m not so sure. (Honestly I was never sure-I put the Bears odds of being eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday as equal to their odds of winning).

Jahns points out that the Cardinal defense is strong, and excels at exactly what the Bears are good at: throwing interceptions and allowing sacks. Most telling is what Arizona’s defense did to Aaron Rodgers (46.7% completions), Matthew Stafford (three interceptions and a 37.6 rating) and Matt Ryan (five interceptions).

Granted, Arizona’s offense is more putrid than the Bears’. But one person out there tell me that they can’t visualize Cardinal cornerback Patrick Peterson dancing back with a pick-six after Devin Hester or Kellen Davis bobble a pass?

The Bears aren’t officially eliminated with a loss on Sunday unless the Minnesota Vikings pull off a huge upset at Houston. But for all intents and purposes they will be. Should the Bears lose Sunday, they would have to win at Detroit and several crazy things would have to happen, starting with several teams ahead of the Bears losing their last two games. I know that the last three years have proven that anything can happen in the NFL. But COME ON, if the Bears offense stinks at Arizona and they sneak in to the playoffs to lose immediately, all that does is ensure one and possibly two more years with Lovie Smith and his entourage.

I’ll say what I believe I have said before. If the Bears win out, look like they’re getting better on offense and they win a playoff game, I would support Smith coming back. If that happens, I would rather see the Bears make one last final one-shot attempt with this roster, IF they are able to add a few more pieces. Another receiver and a tight end to replace the incompetent Davis and Hester, a couple of pieces on the offensive line, etc. Go for broke.

The reason I say this is if Lovie goes (and he should if they miss the playoffs or sneak in and get crushed), it will be time to start from scratch. And that will undoubtedly mean the Bears will be in for some lean years not seen since the “Jauronstedt” days. I’m afraid the Chicago Cubs’ rebuilding process will look swift compared to what will happen to the Bears. Especially given the draft incompetence shown consistently over the course of 20 years.

The last time the Bears had to tear down an old team and build from scratch was in 1993 under Wanny. Remember how long it took for the Bears to get back to at least finishing around .500 year after year? 13 years. I also think of Matt Millen being hired to re-engineer a Detroit Lions team that barely missed the playoffs in 2000 (thanks to the Bears), and we all know how that has gone for them.

In two days, we’ll all find out whether the Bears continue to dangle from a thread, or they officially start the plunge to the Earth.

Hey, at least the world still exists today!

Bears legend and “fan favorite” Brian Urlacher (how ironic is that?) just made it even easier for his team of 13 seasons to move on without him. That is if the organization does the right thing and realizes how wrong it is for the face of their franchise to insult their paying customers.

Once the Bears are officially eliminated from playoff contention either next week or the following, I am more convinced than ever that the Bears should commence rebuilding with a new coaching staff and most likely a new defensive system. Which means there is no reason to move forward with Urlacher, who is in essence a free agent as he probably won’t play again this year. And if the Bears happen to fall ass-backwards into the playoffs, then the rebuilding and hiring of a new staff should commence after their playoff loss.

I will admit that it is hard for me to hold a full-on grudge against Urlacher for one reason. I have seen or heard of him interact(ing) with fans on a one-to-one basis, and I have heard that he is a very approachable, friendly guy in that situation. Even though he’s lashed out stating for the world to hear that he doesn’t care about what we think. His compatriot Lance Briggs (as far as I know) hasn’t publicly lashed out at his organization’s paying customers, but I witnessed him with my own eyes acting less than professional to a fan in public.

Personally I’m caring less and less about any of this, because this is just a game, it shouldn’t affect our personal lives. But I am somewhat offended to see Urlacher lash out as he has. Apparently based on how he feels, fans should cheer he and his team no matter what happens. Cheer them when they make fantastic plays, and voice our unconditional approval when they are reeling away from a 7-1 start to sit at 8-6 with a limited chance of making the playoffs. Cheer away, fans. Unfortunate that Urlacher has now made it impossible for me to cheer for him.

On Monday November 5th, 2012, the Bears had a 7-1 record and had just scored 50 points on an (albeit bad) team for the first time in 32 years. Super Bowl talk was in the air after the Bears had beaten up on largely inadequate competition.

Flash forward to December 17th. The Bears have lost five of their last six games, and now six in a row against their hated rivals, the Green Bay Packers.

I just heard that NFL analyst Hub Arkush still thinks the Bears will win their final two games at Arizona and Detroit and make the playoffs at 10-6. I do not. Not only do I think the Bears will not win at Detroit, I question whether they will beat the Cardinals.

Firstly on the Packers, I can’t help hating them. And I can’t believe I’m about to commit blasphemy by saying Aaron Rodgers and his receivers are so good that I would like to actually start wishing them well the rest of the year (since the Bears are obviously out).

Now don’t freak out, I’ve tried to attempt to wish the Packers well for many years and have never been honestly able to do it. But just because our biggest rival has successfully built a team with a dominating offense (regardless of their MANY flaws), what’s the reason to vehemently hate them because our team is continuously pathetic? Even from my mediocre seats in Soldier Field yesterday, I was amazed by watching Rodgers repeatedly thread the needle with passes we have NEVER seen from a Bears quarterback.

But anyway, every time I think about the potential for Lovie Smith and his staff to be dismissed, I just can’t help but worry about what the Bears organization will do to replace him. The team’s track record for hiring coaches is obviously littered with underwhelming decisions.

And given that Philadelphia and Cleveland are locks to fire their coaches and Arizona, Carolina, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Dallas and Kansas City may very well do so, the Bears would be in immediate competition to hire a competent full staff.

Let us remember that in 1993 Mike McCaskey went on a ski vacation at the end of the year while Mike Ditka twisted. In 1999, that same McCaskey completely screwed the pooch on his first choice then underwhelmed with the hire of nice guy Dick Jauron–and did it so late that every competent assistant coach already had a job. Then in 2004, Jerry Angelo embarked on a slow, methodical cross-country search, reportedly offering the job to Nick Saban, Jeff Tedford and Kirk Ferentz who all turned him down. Then he anointed Lovie Smith the savor when once again every other coaching hire had been made.

What makes us think they will make the right, decisive decision this time? As much as I’d love to see Sean Payton wriggle loose of the Saints and the Bears to make a gigantic offer for him, it’s not happening. Ditto Bill Cowher and Jon Gruden. Nobody knows if Cowher ever wants to come back, and I suspect Philadelphia will pounce on Gruden, making him theirs quickly.

Should they fire Smith and eat his $6 million salary next year, which is not at all a lock, who then would they hire? Chip Kelly? Doubtful. A hot assistant such as Tom Clements, Mark Roman or Rick Dennison? Maybe. Might the McCaskey family intervene and decide that the Bears’ tradition of hiring defensive coaches for the head job needs to continue forever? Very likely. Would they base their search first on whether the person is a “fine man” that toes the organizational line in a quiet manner? (See Wannstedt, Jauron and Smith). I believe that would be the first concern with the hire, which is not the way to ensure a successful football future.

So no, I’m not optimistic no matter what happens. Following a team that has dropped 29 of their last 39 games to their hated rival has something to do with that.

Initial disclaimer here-it is actually quite possible that should the Bears lose to Green Bay for the ninth time in the last eleven meetings then fail to make the playoffs as I predict, it is quite possible that the organization may still bring Lovie Smith back as head coach. So I’m not claiming to predict that if the Bears lose once again to the Packers, Lovie will be gone, because everything in this organization’s history tells you that they may stick with Lovie because he’s a “wonderful man” and his temperament represents the McCaskeys perfectly.

But I would like to think (and/or hope) that if the Bears do once again prove they are too incompetent to beat their arch-rivals more than once every five years, and they do not have success in the playoffs, that there is a real chance that Smith will be fired.

I should hope that Smith’s only chance to come back for at least another year is if he shows his team can beat Green Bay in this huge of a game, and he has some success in the playoffs (getting past the first round).

But as Dan McNeil writes today, Smith’s future is anyone’s guess.

As far as Smith’s coaching career goes anyway, it’s hard to argue that this game isn’t the most important game of his career. Yes, one could make the argument that a loss would be caused by lack of talent outside of Smith’s control, or the recent spate of injuries. But I also consider several questionable coaching decisions over the last several weeks (non-conversion on fourth-and-one, pass play on third-and-one resulting in seven points for the opposition) as evidence that Smith and his staff are at least equally culpable.

I believe a caller spurred discussion earlier this week on the Boers and Bernstein show that really caused me to think. (I can’t remember if it was the caller or Bernstein that made these statements). The point was, we have all seen the Bears looking confused and befuddled on offense not only (but primarily) this season. “How many times have we seen Devin Hester line up wrong or drop a pass….how many times have we seen Jay Cutler scowl at another player because due to a mental mistake such as running the wrong route, the Bears faltered,” Bernstein said.

If Smith and his staff can’t motivate and teach their players to line up right, run the proper routes, get plays in on time, and learn not to drop CRITICAL passes, then blame can be placed nowhere else but on them. When Kellen Davis and Devin Hester are continually on the starting unit when practically all they have done all season is make mistakes and drop passes, tell me one can blame that one anyone else but the staff? I don’t think so.

I like the fact that Brandon Marshall has come out firing on the Packers-and I’m sure he knows he’s very likely to have to eat those words. But he may feel as I do, when his team has had a 36% winning percentage against this opponent, might as well pull out all the stops because it can’t get much worse than it already is.

I just went through the record since 1994 again. As of today including the playoff game, since 1994 the Bears have a 10-28 record against Green Bay. I also pulled out my trusty 1988 Bears Media Guide, and following that season the all-time record between the teams was 78-55 in favor of the Bears, which was a 23-game lead. After the last 19 seasons of carnage, the Bears’ lead is down to seven games (94-87).

Look, I would absolutely love to see the Bears win Sunday, I’m hoping for it, I’m pulling for them to make the playoffs, even if a first-round win means a one-year contract extension for Smith. But unfortunately there is nothing that tells me they will beat the Packers for the first time since September 2010.

Seems to me this is the most beatable Packers team since then-so I would LOVE to think that they could win. But history tells me not to be hopeful.

I’ll leave everyone with this, since I’m on record predicting the Bears will lose to Detroit and miss the playoffs. Should this happen, the Bears will be the first NFL team since the playoff format changed in 1990 to start 7-1 and miss the playoffs. I hope this does not happen, but am afraid that it will.

Actually no, my last words are that it really sucks to walk out of Soldier Field being taunted by Packer fans after yet another Bears loss.

Amazing how things change in a relatively short amount of time. In January 2011 we were all talking about the upcoming NFC Championship game in Chicago between the Packers and Bears. What an event, regardless of the fact that it turned out horribly for the Bears and their fans.

Then just five weeks ago we were on top of the world. The Bears were 7-1 with a one-game lead in the NFC North division, their defense looked resurgent and dominant, and they were coming off scoring 50 points for the first time in 32 years. How sweet it was, just over a month ago.

Since then the defense has gotten old fast, and the Bears have lost four out of five. Several losses coming at the hands of NFL power teams, and several others in games they really should have won. The loss to NFL powerhouse Houston could have been a win too, had Brandon Marshall not dropped a touchdown pass in his hands.

There are currently many schools of thought in the mainstream media regarding how things might go for this organization in the season’s final three weeks. There are several divergent opinions from these writers. I don’t normally offer predictions, but I do have a strong opinion of my own. And for once I do feel like going on the record with it. I may be wrong, but I have a strong feeling.

I think the consensus among Bears fans is that they want Lovie Smith fired unless there is not only a playoff appearance, but success in the 2012 playoffs. In fact, a Chicago Tribune poll shows 85% of us already want Smith fired.

I can’t think of exactly who, but I know I’ve heard someone advocate on the radio that they think Smith should be fired not only if he doesn’t reach the playoffs, which seems like a given, but also if they reach the playoffs but lose immediately. This may be coming from WSCR’s Boers and Bernstein, or possibly just may of their callers. I agree with this sentiment, although as I will state below, I am somewhat concerned about what the alternatives are.

Analyst Hub Arkush, on the other hand, believes that if the Bears reach the playoffs, Smith should be brought back to at least finish out the final year on his contract. Even if they lose a game. And Arkush strongly believes the Bears will finish 2-1, lose to Green Bay, but they are a lock to make the playoffs. I do not share his opinion.

Local analyst Mike Mulligan took a completely different angle in yesterday’s Tribune when he wrote that he thinks Smith is the Bears’ best option for next year. While I disagree because it is time for regime change should the Bears fail this year, and I think rebuilding is better done with a completely new organizational philosophy, I do see his point from one angle. Mulligan points out that as many as 10 NFL head coaches may be getting fired at the conclusion of the season. That is scary.

The reason that makes it scariest for the Bears is that Mulligan is absolutely, 100% correct when he states that the Bears move at a snail’s pace when it comes to picking a coach. Also true that every Bears head coaching hire has been a first-timer, and there is no reason to believe the next won’t be. He doesn’t seriously believe the Bears would get into the race to hire Jon Gruden or Bill Cowher, and I can’t argue with that opinion.

Surprisingly in 1993, the Bears went right out and out-bid for the hottest coaching prospect in Dave Wannstedt. Since then they have plodded along, carefully and meticulously making the decision to hire their new coaches in Dick Jauron and Lovie Smith while other teams made decisive moves. This not only caused the Bears to miss out on the strongest candidates (although there were no real strong candidates in 2004), it also ensured that the hottest assistant coaching candidates were long gone when the Bears assembled their new staffs.

I don’t necessarily agree with Mulligan that Lovie should be back if they miss the playoffs, because I think a complete change is in order of that happens. I do absolutely agree that the Bears may very well plod along while 10 other teams make bold moves, and five more long years from now realize they would have been better served to keep Smith for the final year of his contract. It’s the Bears way.

Now on to my opinion on what I think is going to happen in the last three weeks. I certainly don’t want this to happen, but I think it’s most likely. Of course I don’t think there is any chance for the Bears to beat the Packers. They’ve proven that they just can’t do it, unfortunately. I do believe they will then win at Arizona, and as Andy wrote in our comments, Smith should be fired before the press conference if the Bears lose that game.

So I think the Bears will be 9-6 going into the season’s final game at Detroit. A win should get them a wildcard berth, sending them on the road to New York, Dallas or Washington most likely. But here is the deal, unfortunately, I don’t think they’re going to win in Detroit. I just don’t.

They most certainly CAN win in Detroit if they play efficient offense against a pretty poor Lions defense overall, and if the Bear defense can contain Stafford and Megatron throwing the ball all over the field. Which they may.

But after watching the loss at Minnesota, as of this moment, I just don’t think they will.

Some left-over thoughts from the Chicago Bears’ most recent debacle.

- It just doesn’t feel right to put the names Devin Hester and Kellen Davis in the same context, but the (albeit slightly different) experiments with both of these players on offense need to end. In 2007, Hester was moved from cornerback to wide receiver following his historic rookie season. We all thought that Hester’s play on offense would also be historic. After six seasons of this experiment, I think we can safely conclude that it hasn’t been historically positive. Historically mediocre, possibly. Hester has made a couple of splashy plays like his diving touchdown at Dallas this season, but his memorable drops have far outweighed his positive contributions on offense. His drop of a touchdown pass last Sunday was indicative of the trend of his play as a regular. “Just wait until we get Hester the ball in space on offense with room to make plays,” Lovie Smith’s staff told us in ’07, pretending that Hester would have the impact of other divisional receivers Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb. But he hasn’t. And after six years of trying, it’s time to reduce his role as a starting receiver.

- Why isn’t starting tight end Kellen “body of a world-beater, hands of an egg-beater” Davis on the bench yet? Week after week Davis’ physical skills put him in position to make huge plays, then he drops the pass thrown his way. In my opinion, at least while the playoffs are a (however slight) possibility, the Bears are jeopardizing their chances by continuing to trot Davis out as a starter. Physical skills, absolutely. Football skills? Slight. Start Kyle Adams and begin working Evan Rodriguez in when in multiple-TE sets.

Finally, it just occurred to me this morning. This is only my opinion, but regardless of what anyone says, I think that Sunday’s game versus Green Bay will determine whether the Bears sneak into the playoffs as the wildcard or not. Yes, the Bears could lose to the Packers and still reach the playoffs by winning their last two games as long as some other cards fall their way. But I don’t think this is a possibility-because in my opinion I do not think they’re going to win at Detroit on December 30th. After seeing the Bears’ play at Minnesota, I am convinced they will not win on the road in Detroit.

Never fear, those of you that listen to Lovie Smith. Regardless of what has happened to this point in the 2012 season, or those before, the Bears only face the fourth in a series of four-game seasons in Lovie-speak. Win their final three games and the Bears are in the playoffs.

This is true, to a degree, but it dismisses the reality that the Bears are now 8-5 after starting the season 7-1. They are 1-4 in their last five games, and the losses have been ugly in different ways. It also dismisses the reality that like it or not, 2012 is resembling the finish to the 2011 season in which the Bears spiraled out of playoff contention.

In yesterday’s 21-14 loss at Minnesota, I don’t think the Bears were ever truly in the game. For much of it they looked as if they were playing at a different level of intensity than the Vikings. On the game’s first play, Adrian Peterson ran for 51 yards. The Bears did start to contain Peterson, but at the same time they consistently self-destructed on offense.

Does anyone continue to think this team has the chance for a deep playoff run as we did when they started 7-1 against mostly inferior competition?

The playoffs may not be there at all, as the Green Bay Packers stand directly in front of the Bears. Smith began his head coaching career by famously stating the Bears number one goal is to beat the Packers. Smith started strong in that regard by going 6-2 against pre-Aaron Rodgers Green Bay teams. Since 2008 his Bears teams are 2-7.

Smith’s 2012 Bears controlled the NFC North for much of the season, but in the last two weeks have allowed the Packers to open a two-game lead. Not only this, but the Bears’ losses have allowed teams like Seattle, Minnesota, Washington and Dallas to creep back into the NFC Wildcard race with real chances to supplant the Bears.

Certainly the Bears will make the playoffs if they win out, finishing 3-0 with an 11-5 record including a win against their arch-rivals. Although even if they do beat Green Bay, their chances of a division title and a home playoff game are gone barring an epic Packer collapse. But should the Bears sneak in at 10-6 or 9-7 and have to travel to New York or San Francisco, how are we feeling about their chances? Yes, I will hope that they can go on a Giant-style run and catch fire through the playoffs on the road. But what would make me believe that will happen?

A common topic of conversation these days is that if his Bears miss the playoffs this season, Smith will be fired, as he will have then missed the playoffs in five of the last six seasons and in six of his nine overall. There are many, many questions to consider when deciding if a coaching regime should be retained over a decade or more. The first factor in the decision, I believe, should be the organization asking itself if a 30% record of reaching the playoffs is good enough. Doesn’t seem so to me.

But-as I said when the Bears fired Dick Jauron, although I wanted Jauron fired I questioned what truly better alternatives were out there to replace him. In what I believe to be the rare possibility that the Bears do fire Smith, who besides Bill Cowher and John Gruden are sitting on the sidelines? Who would be a coaching upgrade over Smith, who at the very least has kept the Bears competitive year-over-year (unlike his two predecessors)?

Personally, given the McCaskey family’s love for Smith, I think that even if the Bears finish the season 1-2 and miss the playoffs they will not fire him. It will be odd to see a coach go into the final year of his contract without an extension, but I think that is more likely to happen than a Smith firing.

I don’t think he should be fired just to fire him without a better replacement being identified, but then again how do you continue to go on with a coach who has shown the inability to beat his biggest rivals and a record of making the postseason only 30% of the time?

Focusing on the coming Sunday, it would be nice to be a part of a new era in which the Bears-Packers rivalry is a back-and-forth affair. But is has proven to not be this way in the Smith era. Unfortunately I’m preparing to once again go to Soldier Field on the 16th, see tons of green and gold in the crowd, and walk out embarrassed.

Interesting that I remember Dave Wannstedt’s final game as Bears coach was at Soldier Field in a loss to the Packers. Michael McCaskey noticed the stadium filled with Packer fans and realized how his fan base was eroding. While it may look like it’s approaching this again on Sunday, I doubt that will trigger the same reaction by the family. And unless there is a sure-fire upgrade in the coaching staff identified, I don’t know if that would be the right answer anyway.

There is a growing consensus that the Chicago Bears are more likely headed for a second-straight collapse than a return to the playoffs and an improbable G-Men like run to a Super Bowl victory. I didn’t say that’s how I feel, but this concern is growing.

I’m actually surprised that the majority of ESPN analysts are still sticking with the Bears this week, not that this means anything.

If your glass is half full:

You know that the Bears have one thing in 2012 that they didn’t have in 2011 for the stretch run: Jay Cutler. Oh, and throw in Brandon Marshall while we’re at it. You remember how sharp Cutler has played since returning from his concussion. And according to the Chicago Tribune, even if the Bears finish 2-2, at least one of four teams in the NFC (St Louis, Seattle, Dallas, Washington) would need to win out.

Unfortunately there are still half-empty scenarios:

Even though Cutler was playing lights-out against Seattle, the offense still had a hard time scoring when they really needed to. The offensive line is missing its best player after not even being good in the first place. Matt Forte isn’t playing like he did in 2011, although we don’t know if it’s Forte, nagging injuries, or the blocking. No receiver (other than the oft-injured Alshon Jeffery) has provided a compliment to Marshall. The defense is battered, slowing down, and missing their heart and soul for the remainder of the season.

And, despite the coach preaching how important victories over Green Bay are when he took over the team, he cannot beat the Packers.

I am still hoping for a solid run and maybe some good fortune in the playoffs. But having been a Chicago Bears fan for 33 years, I’ve seen my share of letdowns and implosions.